Introduction
In our ongoing series exploring the Nigerian presidency as a Viable System, we've introduced the broad architecture inspired by Stafford Beer's Viable System Model (VSM). Today, we turn the spotlight onto one of its most critical components: System 3 - the internal command centre responsible for turning visionary goals into coordinated, effective action.
If System 5 sets the overarching purpose and System 4 scans the future, then System 3 is the mechanism that ensures the present works: it allocates resources, maintains internal coherence, and monitors how well the operational units (System 1) are performing. Without a well-designed and properly functioning System 3, no administration, no matter how visionary, can succeed.
What Is System 3?
In VSM terms, System 3 is the internal integration and control function. It acts as the presidential nerve centre, ensuring that ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) work in synergy rather than in silos.
It has three essential functions:
- Resource Allocation: deciding where money, people, and materials should go.
- Performance Management: monitoring operations to ensure they align with central goals.
- Coordination: handling issues that crosscut multiple operational units.
A crucial feature is System 3* - an audit function that gathers independent data from System 1 units, providing an unvarnished picture of actual performance, separate from what is reported upwards through formal channels.
What Should System 3 Look Like in the Nigerian Presidency?
In Nigeria's context, System 3 function is primarily carried out by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) - the main executive decision-making body, where the president, vice president, ministers, and key officials meet to coordinate national policy, approve resource allocation, and review performance. However, a more radical framing is possible using John Beckford's "Intelligent Nation" model (an adaptation of the Viable System Model for the nation-state).
Beckford reframes System 3 as the steward of national coherence and capability and sees System 3 not just as a controller but a governance integrator that:
- Synthesizes intelligence and performance, ensuring data from operations (System 1) and audits (System 3*) inform adaptive decision-making.
- Stewards Fundamental Infrastructure (Energy - including Oil & Gas, Water, Waste, Transport, ICT, Agriculture and Natural Resources) and Social Infrastructure (Health, Education, Commerce, Manufacturing, Civil Administration, Defence & Public Safety) as the foundation of national viability.
- Monitors capabilities, not just delivery. Instead of simply tracking how many roads or schools are built, System 3 must ask: Has this improved national capacity to function and adapt?
- Constructs coherence, aligning fragmented institutions and policies under a unifying strategic logic. It ensures that each policy or budget allocation contributes to the broader viability of the nation.
Applied to the Tinubu administration, this means:
- Elevating infrastructure oversight beyond procurement into a systemic view of national capability.
- Embedding outcome-based metrics into performance dashboards.
- Positioning the Federal Executive Council as a coherence body, not just a policy-approval forum.
- Using tools like the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund not merely for funding but for strategic integration.
In short, Beckford urges us to see System 3 as the consciousness of government performance, linking action, reflection, and purpose.
Designing System 3 for success requires:
- Clear Accountability: Each unit must know its responsibilities and how they connect to the larger mission.
- Lean Coordination Mechanisms: Avoiding bloated bureaucracies by empowering small, agile teams to handle cross-ministry coordination.
- Digital-First Monitoring: Leveraging technology for performance tracking, rather than relying solely on paper reports or verbal updates.
- Strong System 4 Interface: Feeding insights and trends from future-scanning efforts into present-day operational decisions.
Examples from the Renewed Hope Agenda include the national infrastructure campaign, modernizing water supply systems, and building a digital economy; all of which require an integrative System 3 that can steer complex, multi-stakeholder projects.
What Metrics Should It Track?
To support real-time decision-making and transparent delivery tracking, System 3 in the Reimagined Presidency would benefit from a structured Performance Dashboard aligned with the Renewed Hope Agenda. Here's a sketch of how it might look:
To function effectively, System 3 needs to monitor the right metrics. Some priority areas include:
🔑 Core Economic Metrics
* GDP growth (target \~7% per year)
* Job creation (targeting over 50 million jobs)
* Poverty reduction (lifting 100 million people out of poverty)
* Non-oil export contribution to GDP
* Manufacturing sector share of GDP
* Revenue-to-GDP ratio (target: 22%)
* Debt-to-GDP ratio and debt servicing costs
⚙ Fiscal and Monetary Metrics
* Budget execution rates (especially capital vs. recurrent)
* Growth in internally generated revenue (IGR)
* Reduction in fiscal leakages via automation and reforms
* Exchange rate stability and transparency
* Inflation rate (target: \~13%)
* Interest rate (target: \~9%)
📆 Infrastructure and Sectoral Metrics
* Crude oil production (target: 4mmbpd by 2030)
* Electricity generation and per capita consumption (target: 1,000kWh by 2050)
* Gas flaring reduction and domestic utilization rates
* Km of highways constructed or rehabilitated
* Potable water supply coverage (goal: 5-minute proximity)
* Broadband penetration and digital service delivery rates
🏥 Social Metrics
* Population covered by National Health Insurance (target: 40% in 2 years)
* Maternal and infant mortality rates
* STEM and general school enrollment rates
* Teacher qualification rates
* % of political appointments under age 40 (target: 20%)
* % of senior government roles held by women (target: 35%)
🔍 Governance and Institutional Metrics
* Implementation progress of Oronsaye Report reforms
* Uptake and effectiveness of e-governance systems
* Reduction in ghost workers/projects and leakages
* Delivery timelines for Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund projects
Each of these metrics can be displayed using traffic light indicators (🟢🟡🔴), trend charts, and exception registers, providing the President and coordination bodies with a live window into performance. These metrics also help mitigate the risks of System 3 becoming either overbearing (micromanaging) or invisible (absent control), both of which undermine presidential effectiveness.
Risks and Challenges
A weak or poorly designed System 3 can lead to:
- Fragmentation: Ministries working at cross-purposes, wasting resources.
- Inefficiency: Slow budget releases, stalled projects, unaddressed bottlenecks.
- Inflexibility: A rigid control system that chokes innovation or local adaptation.
- Accountability Gaps: Lack of independent performance checks, allowing poor delivery to go unchallenged.
Thus, System 3 must strike a balance: strong enough to maintain control, flexible enough to enable adaptation.
Conclusion: Marking the Tinubu Presidency by Its Tasks
The Tinubu administration has set itself ambitious goals. To deliver on them, it needs more than good intentions, it needs a robust, well-designed System 3 that links vision to action, aligns resources with goals, and keeps the entire system accountable. Bodies like the Federal Executive Council (FEC) must play a central role in ensuring this coordination happens at the highest level.
In the next post, we will zoom into System 1, the frontline operational units responsible for delivering the fundamental infrastructure projects and services that underpin the Renewed Hope agenda.
By understanding how each part of the Viable System works, we can better appreciate both the promises and the practicalities of building a stronger Nigerian state.
